Tangential Ramblings

Insightful?

I just read that:

Blogs (web logs) can be used to share a running log of events and personal or team insights with online audiences.

I'd like to think the insight bit is optional.

Confidence is a preference of the habitual voyeur of what is known as...

Recently, I've started asking for people's confidence levels (from 0% to 100%) of project-related events happening. And although in its early stages, I've been disappointed by the results thus far, confidence generally being way higher than the reality.

Richard Feynman beautifully exposed the flawed methodology behind risk assessment at Nasa in his role on the commission to investigate the 1986 Challenger disaster. Nasa failed to realise (admit?) that if there are lots of uncorrelated bits of the Shuttle each with a near 100% probability of surviving the mission, each of which is critical to avoid disaster, then the probability of the Shuttle returning safely to Earth can fall unacceptably short of 100%.

The realisation of risks in projects I manage has a lesser impact. But an impact nonetheless. So I intend to keep a log of all the confidence estimates I receive (column B), together with the person whose confidence is being shared (column A) and the binary outcome of the event in which they have confidence (column C, 1 meaning the predicted event happened, 0 meaning it didn't). I figure that if people's confidence levels are true reflections of reality, then the sum of column B will equal the sum of column C. And sumifs based on people's names will identify the optimists, realists and pessimists.

=SUMIF(A:A,"John Smith",B:B)/SUMIF(A:A,"John Smith",C:C) will give me an optimism quotient for John. I can then divide any confidence percentage I receive from him by the quotient to get a more realistic view of whether the event will happen.

3G coldspot: an update

I've mentioned before the existence of a 3G coldspot around Vauxhall. Here's an update, with further data now available.

The coldspot begins midway across Vauxhall Bridge. By midway, I mean midway. Literally. The rising half of the bridge brings with it a successful interface with the internet. As soon as the bus tips to descend down the gentle slope of the western half of the bridge, the connection disappears. Entirely. I know exactly when my last Google Reader article download can be made, and I have to choose it carefully, to maximise my coldspot reading pleasure. The coldspot continues up the full length of Millbank and St. Margaret Street, round the perimeter of Parliament Square, ending at the turn on to Parliament Street, at which point, the 3G warmth returns. Bloody annoying, I tell you. And here is the 3G coldspot map.

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http://intranet

Following Icann's decision to allow a free-for-all of TLDs, my plan is to register http://intranet and make my millions through advertising aimed at users looking for their colleagues. Don't tell anyone though; it'll be our little secret.

Question time

My friend Rob is stepping into the world of psychology. It's a bold move that he took a couple of years ago, leaving behind the world of management consulting in favour of mental stuff (stuff about the mind, that is), having spent the intervening years learning stuff at university.

Anyway, my friend Rob would like your help, and I too would like it if you would help him. It's a survey. It's for his dissertation. And your reward for 20 minutes' effort is knowing that you've helped him. What more could you ask for?

Please click on this link to take the survey. I thank you, as indeed will Rob.

Westwood in da field

The controversy should not be over Jay-Z headlining Glastonbury. The controversy should be over the fact that Westwood is there to represent him from a reporting perspective.

Weetabix

Not sure why, but the strapline for the '80s TV advert for Weetabix has entered my head recently and not found its way out. I'm quite enjoying it.

If you know what's good for you, you do, OK! Weetabix!